Recorded events
Hail and wind recorded near Rancho Santa Margarita
Hail is not common here, which is exactly why the days it has happened are worth writing down. Within ten miles of Rancho Santa Margarita, on 3 separate days: 18 March 2024, 3 September 2022, and 5 October 2021.
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What the radar recorded
The most recent detection was on 18 March 2024, about 3 years ago. Radar sized the largest stone in that cell at about 0.75 inches, below the one-inch line, which usually means bruising and granule loss rather than obvious damage. The nearest cell was about 5.8 miles away, which is close enough to be worth checking and far enough that it may have missed the house entirely.
| Date | Largest stone sized by radar | Nearest cell | Cells that day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 March 2024 | 0.75 in | 5.8 mi | 5 |
| 3 September 2022 | 1.25 in | 5.4 mi | 9 |
| 5 October 2021 | 1.0 in | 5.1 mi | 4 |
Gusts, and when they happen
Over 5 years of daily records at this location, the highest modelled gust was about 50 mph, below the 58 mph severe threshold but well into the range that finds anything already lifted or loose. There were 16 days above 39 mph and 8 above 45 mph in that period, concentrated in January, February, and March.
| Date | Peak gust |
|---|---|
| 16 February 2026 | 46 mph |
| 8 January 2025 | 46 mph |
| 14 March 2024 | 47 mph |
| 21 March 2023 | 45 mph |
| 25 February 2023 | 48 mph |
| 23 January 2023 | 50 mph |
| 9 September 2022 | 46 mph |
| 2 February 2022 | 45 mph |
What to look at after a storm
The soft metal, first
Gutters, downspouts, vent caps, and any aluminium fascia are softer than the roof covering and dent before it marks. If there are no dents in the soft metal, there is very probably no impact damage on the shingles either. This is the check an inspector makes before getting on the roof, and you can make it from the ground.
What landed on it
Wind-blown debris causes a surprising share of storm damage, and it is the one kind of damage that is genuinely obvious once somebody looks.
Flashing, chimneys and skylights
Most storm leaks are not through the field of the roof. They are at a junction — a chimney, a skylight, a wall abutment, a valley — where something is meant to be sealed and is not any more. Wind opens those seams before it opens anything else.
The ridge and the edges
Ridge caps sitting proud, a line of shingles along the rake that no longer lies flat, a lifted starter course at the eave: these are wind signatures, and each one is an opening for the next storm rather than a cosmetic complaint.
Inside, before outside
Go into the attic on a bright day with the lights off. Daylight through the deck, fresh staining on the sheathing, or a rust track down a nail shank all say water got in. The attic shows it long before a ceiling does, and dated photographs of it are worth a great deal later.
About this data
Hail detections come from NOAA NCEI’s Severe Weather Data Inventory (NEXRAD product nx3hail) within 10 miles of Rancho Santa Margarita. Radar sizes hail in a storm cell; it does not observe what landed on any particular roof. Gust figures are daily maxima from the ERA5 reanalysis archive at this city’s coordinates, which is a model of the weather rather than a reading from an instrument in the neighbourhood. Both are useful for dates and for scale, and neither is evidence about your roof. Last refreshed 2026-08-31.
Commonly asked
There was a storm near me. Do I have damage?
There is no way to know from the weather record, and this site does not claim otherwise. Two houses on one street come out of the same night in completely different condition. What a nearby storm gives you is a date and a reason to look — starting with the gutters and vent caps, which dent before shingles mark.
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